Economic Recession? Unlikely in 2012

Economic recession? At least not in Malaysia for the time being. And this is based on data from Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, based on overall business condition and consumer sentiment between January to March 2012.

I have actually braced myself for the worst when MIER released the data dor Q4 2011, in my previous post: Business Conditions Index: BCI4Q2011. But this rebound in Q1 2012 is pretty impressive, if you ask me.

In summary, consumer spending has increased compared to Q4 2011 . Employment outlook is still optimistic although there are lay-offs for banking sectors like HSBC worldwide and manufacturing industry like First Solar. Business, overall, is doing no worse than last year, so far.

Details in point form below.


consumer sentiment index 2012

  1. CSI rose to 114.3 points, highest since Q4 2010.
  2. Salary improved, better finances anticipated.
  3. Employment outlook cautiously optimistic.
  4. Inflationary pressure expected to ease.
  5. Shopping plans kick into high gear.



business condition index 2012

  1. BCI rebounded 19.9 points to settle at 116.5.
  2. Sales, new local and foreign orders picked up steam.
  3. Modest manufacturing growth, reduction in inventory.
  4. Expect higher sales and production output in Quarter 2 2012.

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